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Askara
@softmaxedx
Ex-founder. Learning in public about AI, markets, and human behavior: the tech, money, psychology and memes shaping what comes next.
가입 September 2009
666 팔로잉 중    1.8K 팬
Lately I’ve found myself disagreeing with some of Serenity’s points - not necessarily on the endgame, but on the intermediate turns you take to get there. I don’t think communication is as big an issue as people make it out to be. I also don’t think a Nasdaq listing (delay by a quarter or two) is some kind of deal breaker. And I definitely don’t think management has moved away from CPO. The SemiNex partnership was a pretty obvious signal in the opposite direction. They also raised ~SEK 800M specifically for Photonics, not Wireless. Wireless is a separate business unit with its own leadership, and obviously they are going to keep executing. Where I think the distinction matters is this: $SIVE is behind on today’s pluggable commercialization not necessarily on tomorrow’s CPO/NPO transition. Across the sector, the commentary still broadly looks like: 2026–27: 800G → 1.6T pluggables + OCS + components 2027–28: NPO/CPO + ELS/high-power lasers And Sivers’ disclosed CPO/NPO timelines are not wildly different from what LITE and COHR themselves are discussing. The bigger gap today is commercialization, customer validation and production maturity. There is also another possibility people tend to ignore: if Sivers is currently going through customer testing, qualification or NDA covered engagements, management may simply not have much they are allowed to beat the drums about yet. Silence is not automatically evidence that nothing is happening. I trust Vickram to execute. And with businesses like this, once qualification, capacity and customer orders start lining up, several things can move very quickly at the same time. One final point and the probably the most important thing Serenity mentions - if you’re not prepared for an investment to go to zero, you probably shouldn’t be making that investment in the first place. That is broadly how I think about my $SIVE position. I didn’t sell at 100+. I didn’t sell when they diluted me. And I’m not selling simply because it is now around 23. What genuinely ragebaits me is parts of the investor base seemingly being miserable every single day they own the stock. If something consistently makes you suffer, avoid it.
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