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Stitch
@stitchdegen
Meme Research |
가입 December 2024
4K 팔로잉 중    25.9K 팬
And the last token I want to talk about today is $TULIP A lot of you have been asking me about this one after that almost vertical move After digging deeper into it, I think the narrative is actually much more interesting than just looking at the chart So let’s break it down 1. The lore behind $TULIP is actually pretty good The whole story starts with Tulip Mania in 1637, one of the most famous speculative bubbles in history For years, crypto itself has constantly been compared to Tulip Mania But $TULIP basically flips that story around Instead of using tulips as a symbol of a speculative bubble collapsing, this meme turns tulips back into the speculative asset again, except this time it’s happening on-chain What makes it even more interesting is that the idea actually existed before the token started running Back on August 29, @printer_brrr posted an idea about finding a heavily shorted stock, tokenizing it, creating a meme pair around it, and turning the whole thing into an on-chain short-squeeze narrative The stock he specifically mentioned was 1-800-FLOWERS, $FLWS Then FLWS actually got tokenized And shortly after that, $TULIP appeared with a direct TULIP/FLWS pair on Raydium That sequence is probably the biggest reason I find this narrative interesting A lot of memes pump first, then the community tries to build lore around them afterward $TULIP is almost the opposite: the idea came first, the real-world event happened after, and then the token appeared at exactly the right time to capture the attention 2. FLWS gives the meme a real-world connection $FLWS isn’t some random ticker created just for the meme 1-800-FLOWERS is a real American flowers and gifts company, while its stock has been trading weakly with relatively high short interest That creates a very simple story : Wall Street is shorting a flower company, while on-chain degens are buying “flowers” to make money It sounds stupid But that’s exactly why it works as a meme You have a real company, a real stock, tokenized exposure to that stock, and then a memecoin paired directly with it Wall Street shorts flowers, degens buy flowers You can basically explain the entire narrative in one sentence And in meme markets, that matters a lot The easier a story is to understand, repeat, and turn into content, the easier it is for attention to spread 3. Timing is probably the strongest catalyst here This is the part I like the most Tulip Mania obviously isn’t a new reference The idea of using FLWS to create a short-squeeze narrative wasn’t created yesterday either But FLWS was just tokenized, and suddenly this story became something people could actually trade on-chain Then $TULIP appeared with a direct TULIP/FLWS pair It almost perfectly matches the original thesis @printer_brrr also brought attention back to the idea after FLWS was tokenized, reconnecting the current market with that older thesis I wouldn’t treat that as an endorsement of this exact CA But from a narrative catalyst perspective, it definitely matters $TULIP didn’t need to invent a completely new story It simply appeared at exactly the moment when an old story suddenly became tradable The timing itself is the catalyst 4. But don’t confuse the “short squeeze” narrative with an actual short squeeze This is something you need to understand clearly Buying $TULIP does not directly force people shorting FLWS on Nasdaq to cover their positions There’s no mechanism where buying this memecoin automatically squeezes Wall Street The short-squeeze angle here is still primarily a meme narrative Wall Street shorts the stock The stock gets tokenized A meme gets paired with it Then the community turns the whole thing into a degens vs Wall Street trade It creates a very familiar narrative structure : David vs Goliath. On-chain vs TradFi. Degens vs Wall Street From an attention perspective, that’s a powerful story, even if the actual financial mechanism is much weaker than the meme makes it sound So my bet here is pretty simple : I’m not betting that $TULIP will actually cause a short squeeze. I’m betting that the market likes the story of a short squeeze And once the market stops liking that story, my conviction changes very quickly 5. A-tier meme, but currently still a C-tier token This is probably the most important distinction to understand I really like the meme But I have much less conviction in the token itself $TULIP is still extremely new There’s no established public team, no meaningful roadmap, and no real utility that would make me treat this as a long-term fundamental play It also uses Token-2022 with a transfer fee configuration, and the token setup isn’t exactly what I’d call blue-chip clean There are also multiple Tulip tokens trying to capture the same narrative, which means attention can easily get fragmented At the moment, I also haven’t seen enough major KOL confirmation around this exact CA to treat social validation as part of the thesis Even @printer_brrr’s involvement needs to be understood correctly He matters to the lore and narrative, but that doesn’t automatically mean he’s endorsing this specific token So my current view is still : A-tier meme, C-tier token Take away the lore and attention, and there really isn’t much fundamental value underneath Attention is basically the fundamentals of $TULIP right now If attention keeps expanding, valuation can expand very quickly If attention disappears, there isn’t much underneath to support the price 6. The chart finally gave us a clearer structure $TULIP ran from a low cap to above $4M MC, then corrected aggressively toward $800K I personally took a position around $1M MC, and since then buyers have defended the $800K area, pushing the chart back toward $2.4M So the structure is pretty simple : $4M+ => correction to ~$800K => support defended => bounce back to ~$2.4M For now, $800K is the main support and invalidation I’m watching If momentum and volume continue, the previous $4M+ local high becomes the next major level If $800K gets clearly lost and fails to reclaim, I cut I’m not moving my invalidation just because I like the lore 7. There’s another $TULIP trying to vamp the narrative There’s also another $TULIP on gaining attention and competing for the same narrative But personally, I still prefer this one The reason is simple: the version isn’t paired with FLWS, while this $TULIP is directly paired with it And since the whole thesis comes from : Tulip Mania + 1-800-FLOWERS + tokenized FLWS + the old short-squeeze idea I think this version still has the cleaner narrative connection Of course, better lore doesn’t guarantee it wins. If liquidity and attention clearly rotate toward the other $TULIP, I’ll reassess The market decides the winner, not me 8. My plan and the dip zones I’m watching for you guys For me, this is still a narrative trade, not something I’m planning to marry I personally took my position around $1M MC, so after the bounce back toward $2.4M, I’m not looking to chase or add aggressively I already have the position I wanted For those of you who don’t have a position yet, I don’t think there’s any need to FOMO after an almost 3x bounce from the $800K area If you want to bet on it, I’d rather wait for a correction The first area I’d watch is around $1.6M–$1.8M MC If price comes back there while volume still looks healthy, FLWS is still getting attention, and nothing has changed in the narrative, I think a small position starts becoming interesting If we get a deeper correction, $1M–$1.2M MC would offer a better risk/reward, since it’s close to the previous base and not too far from the main $800K support But don’t blindly buy just because the market cap is lower If price comes back while volume is dying, FLWS is losing attention, or liquidity is rotating aggressively into another version, then a cheaper price doesn’t mean much And most importantly, $800K remains the key level If $800K gets clearly lost without a reclaim, I’m not going to keep catching the dip So the plan is simple : My position: entry around $1M No position yet: don’t chase ~$2.4M. Watch $1.6M–$1.8M first, and $1M–$1.2M on a deeper correction Main support/invalidation: ~$800K A dip is only attractive when the price goes down but the thesis doesn’t 9. Conclusion I completely understand why $TULIP managed to capture attention so quickly It combines : Tulip Mania + a real flower company + a heavily shorted stock + tokenized FLWS + a direct TULIP/FLWS pair + an old thesis suddenly becoming relevant at exactly the right time That’s a strong combination for a meme because the story is simple, funny, and extremely easy to spread There’s now another $TULIP on competing for the same attention, but for now I still prefer this version because the FLWS pair actually completes the original thesis I entered around $1M MC, and the $800K support has already been tested and defended, followed by a strong bounce back toward $2.4M For those who haven’t entered yet, I wouldn’t chase the current bounce I’d rather watch $1.6M–$1.8M, or $1M–$1.2M on a deeper correction, as long as the narrative and volume remain intact If momentum continues, the $4M+ local high is the next major area I’m watching If $800K gets completely lost, I cut Simple as that I still like the story behind $TULIP more than I like the token itself Trade the attention, don’t marry the story 7vSG4GX8qz5V36noSde5Z9xV8xAXAGqivDyaNytPVDJf
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And the third play I want to talk about today is $RAYCAT A lot of you have been asking me about this one after its recent run, especially one question : Is the current dip actually a good entry? I looked deeper into it, and before talking about entry, I think we first need to understand what we're actually betting on here $RAYCAT is not an official Raydium token, and it’s also not the leader of the current cat meta The thesis, in my view, sits at the intersection of three narratives : Cat meta + $RAY/Raydium + StonkFun dividend meta 1. The idea is simple: hold the cat, earn RAY What makes $RAYCAT different from a pure cat meme is the reward mechanics Every buy, sell, or transfer of $RAYCAT is taxed. Most of that fee is converted into RAY and distributed back to holders based on how much $RAYCAT they hold No staking, no locking, and no manual claiming Simple : More volume => more fees => more RAY rewards for holders StonkFun also has a mechanism that uses part of its platform revenue to buy back and burn $RAYCAT. That is a separate flow, so don’t confuse it with the tax used for holder rewards One practical detail: transferring tokens between wallets can still be taxed, and very small wallets may not meet the minimum threshold to receive rewards So yes, I like the mechanics, but don’t look at a high APR and assume it’s fixed yield The APR looks high because volume is high If volume drops, rewards drop with it For me, if you’re tracking this play : Watch volume first, APR second 2. But $RAYCAT didn’t create this meta To understand why $RAYCAT ran, you first need to look at $ZCAT $ZCAT was the one that proved the template : Hold a meme => earn a “real” token. $ZCAT rewards holders in ZEC, and after its massive run, the market started copying the same mechanics into other tokens : RAYCAT => RAY JUPCAT => JUP LEVERCAT => LEVER So if we’re being accurate, $RAYCAT is a beta of the $ZCAT thesis, not the originator of the narrative But that’s how meme markets work The leader creates the meta first, then liquidity starts rotating into smaller betas And among those betas, I think $RAYCAT has pretty clear positioning 3. Because it picked the right token : RAY This is where it gets interesting for me Ray Cat Paired with RAY Rewards paid in RAY Launched through StonkFun while the StonkFun/Raydium narrative already has attention So buying $RAYCAT isn’t really just betting on another cat You’re effectively betting on three things at once : Cat meta staying alive + RAY staying strong + StonkFun continuing to generate volume That’s why I see $RAYCAT as something like : A cheaper beta of $ZCAT + an option on RAY If RAY keeps running and liquidity stays active around StonkFun, I think $RAYCAT is one of the easiest betas for the market to rotate back into within this branch of the meta 4. But there’s one narrative I think people are pushing too far The whole “official Raydium cat” story Raydium has posted cat memes, and the community started connecting them to $RAYCAT It’s obviously a very easy narrative to FOMO into But so far, I haven’t seen Raydium officially mention the $RAYCAT ticker or post the actual CA confirming that this is their token or mascot $RAYCAT itself is also not an official Raydium product So separate these two things : Raydium posting cats = fact That cat being $RAYCAT = community narrative If Raydium eventually mentions the actual ticker or CA, that could become a very strong catalyst But for now, I treat it as a potential catalyst, not something I’d buy based on the assumption that “Raydium will eventually tweet it” 5. The problem is that most of the easy catalysts have already happened This is why I’m not that interested in chasing the current dip $RAYCAT has already been verified/listed on Fomo Moonshot has verified it too RAY already had a strong move The cat meta has already run StonkFun already has attention And the chart has reflected all of that pretty clearly $RAYCAT ran from around $2M to nearly $15M MC, then wicked back down hard So this is no longer a pre-pump play It’s an after-pump play currently going through a reset For another strong leg, I think it needs fresh fuel Maybe RAY breaks out again Maybe StonkFun volume expands further Maybe $ZCAT starts a second leg and pulls the smaller satellites with it Or the strongest catalyst would obviously be Raydium actually acknowledging $RAYCAT itself Without something new, I’d lean more toward the chart needing time to reset rather than immediately printing another ATH 6. And don’t forget that $ZCAT is still the leader Looking at the broader cat meta, $ZCAT is still clearly ahead It has the first-mover advantage, a much larger market cap, and most importantly, it has already proven the narrative $RAYCAT is still more of a satellite play Simply put : $ZCAT is the leader of the meta $RAYCAT is the RAY beta If $ZCAT starts another leg, liquidity can easily rotate down into smaller betas like $RAYCAT But the opposite is also true When the leader gets weak, satellites usually get hit harder So don’t look at $ZCAT around ~$100M and $RAYCAT around ~$8M and simply think : “It still has another 10–12x just to catch ZCAT” Meme markets don’t price things that easily 7. This is also why the mechanics are both its biggest strength and its biggest risk The $RAYCAT flywheel looks great when the market is hot : Volume => tax => RAY rewards => incentive to hold => attention => more volume But when the market turns, that same flywheel can reverse : Attention drops => volume drops => rewards drop => incentive to hold drops So at the end of the day, the real engine is still volume If price corrects but volume remains healthy, RAY stays strong, and StonkFun keeps getting attention, I’m not too worried But if the chart starts bleeding while volume dies at the same time, then a pretty APR number doesn’t mean much This is still a meme And cat metas rotate extremely fast Today the market likes $RAYCAT. Tomorrow, another “CAT + reward token” can appear and steal all the attention 8. So is the current dip worth buying? This is the main question At around $8M MC, personally, I’m not chasing it Not because the thesis is bad It simply just ran from ~$2M to ~$15M before correcting back here. To me, ~$8M still feels stuck somewhere between the expansion and the actual reset zone If I wanted to bet on it, I’d start paying attention around $5–6M The $4–5M area becomes much more interesting if RAY is still strong, StonkFun is still generating volume, and the cat meta hasn’t died If the market actually gives us around $3M while the entire thesis remains intact, that’s where I’d see a much better margin of safety for a gamble On the other hand, if it loses the ~$2M area completely, then the structure of this current wave is basically broken for me Meme is meme No matter how good the narrative is, you still need an invalidation 9. Final thoughts I actually like $RAYCAT Not simply because it’s another cat, but because it sits at the intersection of several narratives that make sense : $ZCAT dividend meta + RAY + Raydium + StonkFun The $RAY reward mechanics also give it more reason to be interesting than most of the other cat clones But I still see it as a beta, not the leader. More importantly, most of the easy catalysts have already been priced in through that move from ~$2M to nearly ~$15M For another leg, I want to see volume remain strong or a fresh catalyst appear So for the question I keep getting : Is the ~$8M dip worth buying? For me, there’s no need to rush I like $RAYCAT, but at ~$8M, I don’t like the price yet CFNRDaxFcvRwRSNnA5cHrCCr6AHhk9dNkHWpRUjNupFL
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