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Stitch
@stitchdegen
Meme Research |
가입 December 2024
4K 팔로잉 중    29.2K 팬
Quick update on $HOOKED following my previous research When I wrote the original post, $HOOKED was trading around the $7–8M market cap range. Since then, it has expanded to around $13M, with a wick as high as $16–17M But what interests me more than the price action is what has changed behind the scenes The flywheel is still running. Last time, the dashboard showed around 25.7M $HOOKED burned and roughly 865 SOL used for buybacks. The latest snapshot has increased to around 38.07M $HOOKED burned, equivalent to ~3.8% of the supply, with approximately 2,214 SOL in total protocol fees and around 1,882 SOL used for buybacks The number of launches has also grown quickly, from roughly 285 to nearly 500 tokens. The team continues to ship new Transfer Hook use cases such as Pump App-only, Social Trading Hook, and OpenSea-only, alongside sliding caps, sniper-fee caps, market hours, and other rules The positive takeaway here is that the product hasn’t stood still while the token pumped. Platform activity is still generating fees, and the flywheel continues to market buy and burn $HOOKED However, the one thing I was waiting for in my previous research still hasn’t really appeared : A proven runner Right now, $HAMSTER at around $2.3M MC is the most notable token on the pad, followed by $FOMO at around $1M. But both are still relatively new. $HOOKDOG has already graduated, but its market cap remains only a few hundred thousand dollars For me, the number of launches matters much less than whether a token can retain liquidity, holders, and most importantly volume after the initial hype fades At the end of the day, $HOOKED doesn’t need these tokens to hold $HOOKED. It needs their trading volume to generate protocol fees, which then continue feeding the buyback/burn mechanism There’s also one point I want to correct from my previous post I previously mentioned a public on-chain compilation that recorded roughly 2,080 SOL claimed by the creator/dev wallet. With a more complete breakdown, this appears to be primarily pool fees from the $HOOKED Meteora pool itself, including fees from the initial curve and the LP position after graduation It should not be interpreted as the team withdrawing 2,080 SOL from the flywheel These are two separate flows of funds, and the flywheel itself is still operating, with the dashboard showing around 1,882 SOL used for buybacks That said, the creator/dev wallet is still something I’m monitoring closely : Dpmutmc4ZLqvJwHbwabvKYeFJ9zkQ86nutUAUviRrXG2 The wallet continues to claim pool fees, and the latest snapshot showed it holding around $127–128K USDC, up from roughly $110K when I checked previously What I still haven’t seen the team publicly explain is the flow involving Privacy Cash. A previous third-party on-chain reconciliation recorded roughly $160K USDC being deposited there This doesn’t prove anything malicious is happening, but it remains a transparency question that I’d like to see addressed more clearly So my current thesis on $HOOKED is actually pretty simple Compared with my first post, the product has progressed, the flywheel is stronger, more tokens have been burned, the number of launches has increased, and the price action confirms that attention is clearly here But the valuation is also significantly higher now, while two major questions remain : Can Hooked produce a real runner that generates sustainable volume? And will the team provide more transparency around the creator/dev wallet flows? From here, I don’t really care if the team adds another 10 or 20 hooks What I want to see is a token on the pad survive beyond the initial hype and continue generating volume, the flywheel keep growing even as attention cools down, and a clearer explanation of the wallet flows $HOOKED has already proven that this narrative can attract attention The next step is proving that this attention can be converted into recurring volume, recurring fees, and an ecosystem that can actually survive beyond the hype That’s what I’ll be watching from here C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE
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And next up is solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE, a name that has been getting quite a lot of attention after running from below $1M to nearly $10M market cap Instead of just looking at the chart, I dug deeper into the product, flywheel, and especially the creator/dev wallet to see what is actually behind this move Let’s break it down 1. What is Hooked actually building? What caught my attention is that Hooked isn’t simply another launchpad on Solana Hooked is built around Token-2022 Transfer Hooks, allowing creators to embed certain rules directly into the token’s transfer process For example : > Anti-bundle > Anti-dump > Max wallet > Holder vesting > Allowlist > DEX-only > Market hours > FOMO-only buys > Sniper fee cap Whenever a token is transferred or swapped, the hook program checks the transaction. If it violates the configured rule, the transaction can be rejected directly on-chain Simply put, instead of relying entirely on a frontend, bots, or separate infrastructure for protection, Hooked moves part of that logic to the on-chain level That’s what I find interesting about the product 2. A few things you need to understand Transfer Hooks don’t necessarily stay forever If a creator chooses a Graduating Curve, once the token reaches graduation, the transfer hook can be removed during migration. After that, the token trades more like a normal token and the previous restrictions may no longer be enforced With a Permanent Curve, the hook remains active So features like anti-dump, max wallet, or anti-bundle are not automatically permanent for every token launched through Hooked Another thing worth noting is that the hook program can still be upgraded by Hooked’s deploy authority to fix bugs or update the program The rules are enforced on-chain and don’t simply depend on the frontend, but there is still a certain level of trust involved with the team and program authority There is also one important distinction around fees When Hooked says “fees do not go to the creator,” that refers to protocol fees generated by tokens launched through the platform. It doesn’t necessarily mean the team cannot receive other types of fees related to the solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE pool itself So it’s important to separate protocol flywheel fees from solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE pool fees before looking at creator wallet activity 3. The flywheel is where solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE gets interesting The technology creates the narrative, but the flywheel is what connects platform activity directly back to solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE According to the mechanism, every trade on a Hooked bonding curve pays a 1% protocol fee Of that : 85% is used to market buy solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE and burn it 15% goes toward development The flywheel is pretty straightforward : More launches => More volume => More fees => More solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE buybacks => More burn If the platform actually scales, activity on Hooked creates direct demand for solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE instead of the token relying purely on speculation More importantly, this mechanism is already operating on-chain, not just sitting on a roadmap At the time I checked, the dashboard had recorded roughly 25.7M solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE burned, with around 865 SOL used for buybacks So at the very least, the flywheel has already started working in practice But I still think it’s too early to extrapolate a few days of activity into a long-term trend What matters more is whether volume, fee revenue, and the pace of buybacks can remain sustainable once the initial hype cools down 4. Hooked still needs a real runner The number of tokens launching on the platform is growing quickly, but quantity isn’t the metric I care about most A launchpad can create hundreds of tokens, but if most of them stall at a few thousand dollars in market cap, the ecosystem still won’t generate sustainable volume What I want to see is : Token graduates => maintains liquidity => retains holders => continues generating volume Right now, most of the launches I’ve seen are still relatively small, and there hasn’t been a major runner yet that truly proves the model If Hooked starts producing a few real runners, the thesis becomes much stronger At that point, the flywheel would no longer be fueled purely by speculative volume from newly launched tokens It would start being supported by real ecosystem activity That’s the catalyst I care about most 5. Creator/dev wallet This is where things get more interesting when looking deeper on-chain The wallet associated with the creator/dev side : Dpmutmc4ZLqvJwHbwabvKYeFJ9zkQ86nutUAUviRrXG2 This wallet has been claiming fees from the solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE pool, with part of the SOL later being swapped into USDC At the time I checked, the wallet was still holding around 110K USDC, while fee claims continued to appear A public compilation of on-chain transactions covering September 28 to October 1 recorded roughly 2,080 SOL in pool fees claimed, with around 1,970 SOL swapped into USDC and approximately 160.8K USDC later flowing into Privacy Cash Some of the larger transactions cited include roughly 652 SOL claimed, 955 SOL swapped, and 103.2K USDC deposited I still treat the aggregate figures above as reference data from a public on-chain compilation, since I haven’t reconciled every individual transaction myself What can be seen directly on-chain, however, is that the wallet has been claiming fees, converting part of them into USDC, and holding a significant amount of stablecoins The fact that the team is claiming pool fees doesn’t automatically mean they are dumping or that something is wrong with the project As mentioned earlier, solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE pool fees and the 1% protocol fee feeding the flywheel need to be treated separately, because they are not necessarily the same flow of funds What interests me more is where the money goes after being claimed If the USDC flow into Privacy Cash is fully confirmed, tracking the final destination of those funds becomes much more difficult That doesn’t prove the team is doing anything malicious, but it clearly reduces transparency from a holder’s perspective So I’d like to see the team provide more clarity around where these pool fees come from, how they are allocated, and the purpose of funds moving through Privacy Cash Until then, this remains one of the main risks I’ll continue monitoring with solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE 6. Don’t just look at dev holdings This is also why I’m not only checking how much of the supply the dev currently holds For a token directly tied to a platform, cash flow can be just as important as token holdings If the ecosystem generates revenue through fees, the team doesn’t necessarily need to sell large amounts of solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE to monetize platform activity So what I want to track is : Fees generated => wallet receiving the fees => what those assets are converted into => where the funds eventually go That gives me much more context than simply looking at holder distribution 7. What about the chart? solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE’s price action is obviously strong The token ran from below $1M to nearly $10M market cap, and despite the volatility afterward, it has managed to hold a significant part of that expansion, trading around the $7–8M range on the chart I’m watching That shows the narrative has attracted attention very quickly But the risk/reward is also completely different from when the token was below $1M At the current valuation, the market is already pricing in quite a few expectations : Hooked continues attracting users More tokens continue launching Volume continues growing The flywheel keeps buying back solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE And eventually, the platform produces runners large enough to keep the ecosystem active So I no longer consider solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE an early discovery at these levels From here, execution starts to matter more than narrative 8. The thesis from here is pretty simple The bull case for solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE is easy to understand Hooked has real technical differentiation through Token-2022 Transfer Hooks Platform activity generates fees Those fees create market buys for solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE The purchased tokens are burned If Hooked starts producing successful launches, the loop could become : Better launches => More users => More volume => More fees => More solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE buybacks => More attention => More launches But the other side is just as clear If most tokens launched on Hooked die quickly, the initial hype fades, and no real runners emerge, fee generation will decline Buybacks decline Burns decline And one of the most important parts of the solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE thesis becomes weaker On top of that, there are still questions around the creator wallet and transparency of the pool fee flows 9. What am I watching next? I don’t need Hooked to announce another twenty new rules to become more bullish I want to see real usage A few tokens graduating and surviving afterward Volume remaining active after the initial hype Fee revenue continuing to come in Buybacks and burns continuing even as attention cools down And most importantly, I’d like to see a clearer explanation around the creator/dev wallet and the pool fee flows If these things start happening together, the solana:C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE thesis becomes significantly stronger At that point, the story is no longer simply a new token with a Transfer Hook narrative It becomes a launchpad with real activity, where ecosystem volume directly creates buy pressure and reduces the supply of its native token For now, I’m keeping a neutral view The technology is real. The flywheel is already running. The price action is strong But Hooked is still too new to prove sustainable demand, and wallet flows are still something I want more transparency on before having stronger conviction Instead of FOMOing the chart or FUDing the project just because the team is claiming fees, I’d rather keep watching product adoption, fee generation, and on-chain flows and let the data speak for itself C1mBfBoDkwWfd6uTFZp62ARHLjeVp3bDpCDMfMZtPngE
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