despite my own hopes and my sense that there's been meaningful progress in many dimensions, i think it's pretty important to keep in mind that yudkowsky's prediction has consistently been that we will keep doing things that superficially look like alignment, grow social consensus that they're working well and allow for further incremental capabilities gain and deployment, and proceed to be shocked by improved capabilities totally bypassing these techniques in ways we did not well predict in advance, potentially repeatedly right up until it's far too late. recent events.... kind of look exactly like that. i think the same as many others, i felt some increasing optimism over the last year or so, as it seemed like we had at least a potential path to victory in our sights. this feels like it should be a pretty major wake up call that the whole general civilizational meta-trajectory of what we're doing may actually be fucked, even actively working to fool us.