Yesterday Kevin Warsh hiked rates by 25bps with core CPI at 2.4% YoY, the lowest reading since March 2021. His explanation was that inflation is too high and has been for too long. Core inflation was 80bps higher when the Fed cut by 50bps than it was when the Fed just hiked. It gets stranger when you look at the monthly data. The August 2024 core print before the cut was 0.3%. The August 2026 core print before the hike was 0.3%. Identical monthly numbers produced opposite policy decisions. I get the pushback. Headline is 3.4% now because energy ripped and the funds rate was 5.25% to 5.50% then vs 3.5% to 3.75% now so the starting points were different. That still doesn't explain how 3.2% core justified easing into an election while 2.4% core justifies tightening. Either the Fed was too easy in 2024 or it's too tight now. Both can't be the right call at those inflation levels. Every Fed official says policy is data dependent yet the same 0.3% monthly core print produced a 50bps cut in one cycle and a hike in the next. The 2% target isn't setting policy. Discretion is. I would love to see what Fed Chair Warsh would say to this. @federalreserve @SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump