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Xiao Tan
@tvytlx
技术专家,从阿里到澳洲到AI创业,随机对 AI 产品、AI 技巧发表感想
가입 March 2017
927 팔로잉 중    12.8K 팬
账面签了 1030 亿美元大单,估值干到 350 亿美元准备上市。 结果自家的旗舰机房,连 30 兆瓦的电都没跑起来。 这是彭博社刚扒出来的英国 AI 数据中心公司 Nscale 的真实处境。 今年 3 月它估值还是 146 亿美元,现在准备翻倍去冲 IPO。 把里面的工程进度和账本凑一块看,真服了。 先看物理世界的进度。 他们在挪威的旗舰数据中心,原计划交付 30 兆瓦容量。 经历了去年 12 月起火、冷却液泄漏、施工一路拖延之后,现在进度已经落后了整整半年。 目前真正跑起来的只有 6.4 兆瓦,光延期罚款就已经赔出去几百万美元。 至于挪威下一阶段大扩建需要的电网电力,大概率得等到 2037 年才通得上。 再看资本市场的账本。 Nscale 拿去给投资人讲故事的核心筹码,是 1030 亿美元的已签约合同。 这里面大概 85% 集中在两个客户身上:微软和 Anthropic。 最魔幻的地方就在 Anthropic 这笔 446 亿美元的合同里: 第一,Nscale 自己承认,执行这笔合同需要的钱和芯片,现在都还没搞定。 第二,合同条款写明了,如果算力交付迟到,Anthropic 可以直接取消部分合同,一分钱违约金都不用赔。 一家连 30 兆瓦机房都按时交不出来的公司,把一份没钱买卡、而且客户随时能合法跑路的协议,包装成了几百亿的账面底气。 顺带一提,英伟达还在 IPO 前给这哥们投了 10 亿美元的可转债。 跟之前在 CoreWeave 身上玩的一模一样:自己掏钱资助客户,客户再拿这笔钱回来买英伟达的显卡。 我觉得这套左脚踩右脚的估值游戏,只有在大家只看纸面数字、不看工地施工的时候才转得动。 一旦电网、冷却管线这些物理硬约束卡死交付时间,触发了大客户的免责退单条款,上千亿的纸面富贵随时会缩水。 早知道这种双方都能随时反悔的远期意向书这么好使,我也去跟供电局签个 2037 年的百亿用电合同,看看能不能先去银行套点贷款出来。
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🦔Nscale, the British AI data center company planning an IPO at up to $35 billion, is six months behind on its flagship site in Norway, Bloomberg reports. Only 6.4 of a planned 30 megawatts run there after cooling leaks, a December fire and construction delays, and late capacity has already cost it millions in penalties. Back in March, investors valued the whole company at $14.6 billion. My Take The pitch is $103 billion in signed contracts. About 85% of that comes from two customers, Microsoft and Anthropic, and Nscale admits it hasn’t lined up the money or the chips for Anthropic’s $44.6 billion deal yet. Anthropic can cancel parts of that contract with no penalty if capacity shows up late, and Nscale can’t get 30 megawatts running on time in Norway. A contract the customer can walk away from doesn’t count for much as backlog. Nvidia also put $1 billion into Nscale’s pre-IPO convertible notes, so the chipmaker is once again funding a company that buys its chips, same as it did with CoreWeave. The grid power for Nscale’s next big Norway expansion probably won’t arrive before 2037 either. My guess is the price comes down well below $35 billion before this lists, or the date slides into next year. Hedgie🤗
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