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Vivi
@vivilinsv
Silicon Valley Correspondent @californiapost @nypost| People, AI, money & power | ex @Reuters TV & @ftchinese columnist | Signal: Vivilinsv.88 |Views are my own
가입 December 2013
8.9K 팔로잉 중    30K 팬
The Bessent–Warren fight is getting epic - and personal! 🤣 But underneath the insults is actually a useful lesson in how governments intervene in foreign-exchange markets. And on one narrow but important point, @SecScottBessent appears to be right. @SenWarren questioned Treasury's intervention to support the Japanese yen by arguing that American taxpayers could ultimately bear the cost if Japan were unable to “repay” Treasury. The problem: Japan apparently has nothing to repay. According to Bessent, Treasury did not lend Japan money. The Exchange Stabilization Fund exchanged foreign-currency assets it already owned for yen — reportedly selling euros and buying yen. That's an FX purchase. No loan was created. Japan didn't borrow the money. There is no Japanese principal waiting to be repaid. This distinction matters because there are at least three very different financial instruments getting mixed together in this political debate: FX purchase: Treasury sells one currency and buys another. It now owns a different reserve asset and bears FX valuation risk. Currency swap: Two monetary authorities exchange currencies with an agreement to reverse the transaction later. Loan: A borrower receives money and owes principal, usually plus interest. Argentina was different. The U.S. established a $20 billion swap line with Argentina's central bank in 2025, and Treasury records show Argentina drew $2.5 billion through an actual swap transaction. So Warren is absolutely entitled to question whether Treasury should intervene, how much risk taxpayers are taking, whether the intervention worked, why the amount remains undisclosed, and whether the ESF is being used too aggressively. Those are legitimate oversight questions. But “What happens if Japan can't repay us?” appears to misunderstand the transaction itself. And Bessent's broader argument is worth understanding too. Japan is one of the world's largest holders of U.S. Treasuries. A disorderly yen collapse can trigger carry-trade unwinds, portfolio shifts and forced selling across global markets — potentially pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and ultimately borrowing costs for Americans. So the real debate isn't simply: “Why are American taxpayers bailing out Japan?” But this - How much financial risk should the U.S. Treasury take to prevent instability in a global financial system in which America's own borrowing costs are deeply interconnected with foreign currencies and foreign capital? That is a much more interesting question. Politics aside, this Bessent–Warren exchange is a surprisingly good International Finance 101 lesson: A currency purchase is not a swap. A swap is not a loan. And financial risk does not necessarily require a borrower to default.
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In her latest sciolistic letter to me, @SenWarren made it clear that she knows even less about foreign exchange markets than she does about banking. What is equally shocking, but not surprising: not a single member of the media mob has a rudimentary-enough level of financial market literacy to spot her remedial error. To reiterate: under @POTUS, the United States delivers for America’s trusted partners. For a fuller explanation, I recommend Senator Warren take any entry level course in international finance for her and her staff, or I can personally give her a tutorial on Foreign Exchange for Dummies. Although I am not holding my breath, I hope her next letter will demonstrate that she has learned the difference between a currency purchase and a swap or a loan.
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