If I give you a price target I'll make a sucker out of you and me. I'll be wrong because the tops are highly chaotic in nature. You'll be influenced by it, maybe you'd even make a sell decision based on this random number in the future. REALITY: Finding tops is akin to forecasting the weather: clouds form, skies darken, then comes the storm. Someone 2 years out can never predict WHEN and WHERE. It's easier to see it as it approaches. That's how seasoned investors make decisions. 6 years ago I read out a moving number from a model for the upper expected bound for price at any moment, that number got copied across the press and misrepresented. 6 years later people still say I was wrong... likely they remember after 6 years because they made an investment decision based that number. I was a sucker for reading out that number, they were suckers for making an investment decision on that number.