Some thoughts on what is needed for global markets to stabilize. Views welcome.
US market have sold off in a unhinged way ! (over 10% in last 2 days)
Why ?
Because the tariffs imposed were unhinged !
Instead of reciprocal (I do to you what you do to me) they were calculated in a arbitrary manner - based on the total trade imbalance with each country !
And that makes the Trump administration look unhinged. These moves suggest that they want to wipe off deficits meaningfully.. not just tariffs but more structural & non-trade barriers as well..
but eliminating deeply in-built non tariff barriers will take years or may never happen.. so this is just not credible !
basically it has become a credibility issue !
For global markets to stabilize - we need to see credible off ramps for countries with respect to these tariffs.
Basically a message or path forward from Trump or his team - which tells other countries - 'you do this & this and we will bring these tariffs lower'
So all the market may actually need to stabilize may be a headline away !
And I hope it is sooner rather than later !
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