X Web Viewer

DEMOCRATS SWEEP CONGRESS. FED HIKE BETS RETREAT. Following the midterm results, December Fed hike odds have fallen from above 80% to 67%. Prediction markets now put the chance of a hold at 33%, its highest since mid-September.

$BKNG topped Q3 guidance with room night growth of 7% and adjusted EBITDA reaching $4.6B. $XLY Management slowed Q4 room night guidance to 1%-3%, citing persistent Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Booking Holdings: Gross margin = 87.2% Adjusted EBITDA margin = 47.0% Cash and investments = $16.2B Share repurchases = $2.1B Daily AI search visitors = up 10x QoQ Seeking Alpha Quant Rating for Booking Holdings: Hold, balancing profitability against valuation pressures. Can AI search traffic offset a Middle East slowdown?

$DDOG shares fell after Q4 revenue guidance signaled a growth slowdown. $IGV Q4 sales are forecast near $1.2B, slowing growth to 26% from 35%. Net additions of large enterprise clients fell 33% YoY. Datadog: Full-year revenue forecast = ~$4.51B to ~$4.53B, beating analyst estimates PEG ratio = 3.52 Valuation grade = D- Seeking Alpha Quant Rating for Datadog: Hold. Is an 18% drop an overreaction or a fair reset?

$ANET delivered $3.66B in Q3 revenue, up 58.5% YoY. $SMH $QQQ Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13.3B and is targeting $18.5B in 2027. AI fabrics revenue is expected to double to ~$7B by 2027. Arista Networks: Gross margin = 64% Forward non-GAAP PEG ratio = 1.55 Purchase commitments = $11.4B Inventory = $3.2B Seeking Alpha Quant Rating for Arista Networks: Hold, balancing outstanding profitability against elevated valuation multiples. Can Arista double its AI business by 2027?

$UBER reported Q3 revenue of $14.77B, beating Wall Street expectations by $100M. $XLI Quarterly trips expanded 16% YoY to 4.1B, driving gross bookings up 20% to ~$60B. Uber: Forward non-GAAP PEG ratio = 0.73 Gross margin = 40.75% Return on equity = 37.16% Profitability grade = A+ Upward estimate revisions = 32 analysts Projected Q4 earnings growth = up to 39% Seeking Alpha Quant Rating for Uber: Hold. Is a 0.73 PEG too cheap for Uber's growth?

Tech stocks are getting pummeled on Thursday. Chip stocks central to the AI trade in particular are getting walloped. AMD and Micron are down 12% and 11%, respectively. More here:

The CBOE Volatility Index rose on Thursday as equity sell-off picked up steam, with Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge hitting a high of 28.09. It was the highest level since March 31, when the VIX hit a high of 29.64.

BITCOIN PLUNGES BELOW $76,000 AS TECH SELLOFF SPARKS CRYPTO ROUT Bitcoin fell as much as 5.8% to a seven-week low, dropping below $76,000 as Wall Street's technology selloff spread to cryptocurrencies. The Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.4%, while concerns over tighter AI regulation following Democrats' midterm victory intensified risk aversion. Crypto markets are also facing pressure from the Binance hack, with investors withdrawing $1 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $900 million of those outflows.

Exclusive by @flacqua Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey tells Bloomberg TV a second interest rate hike is “more likely than not” if the Iran war continues He warns a jump in inflation is “quite baked in at this point” even in a scenario where there is a rapid deescalation If energy prices go back to “where they were” before this week’s sharp drop in oil prices, a “second rise is probably more likely than not,” Bailey says This is now the central risk to Andy Burnham’s government. If Trump escalates again in Iran, the next year starts to look very difficult for the PM. Even if he doesn’t Britain isn’t out of the woods Traders now put the odds of back-to-back interest rate rises in December at 50-50 On Bloomberg TV free to watch here:

IRAN REVIEWS CONCRETE NUCLEAR DEAL PROPOSALS IN POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH Iran is reviewing new proposals on its nuclear program that could help end the war with the United States, according to The New York Times, citing five officials. Qatar-led mediation has gained momentum, with talks held in Tehran and Doha, while Vice President JD Vance is reportedly pushing for a negotiated settlement. Major disagreements remain over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz.

IRAN REFUSES TO REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ Ending the Iran war is reportedly the main focus of Rezaei-Putin talks, according to Al Mayadeen. Iran insists the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until its seven conditions are met, ruling out negotiations over that decision.

Exclusive by @flacqua Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey tells Bloomberg TV a second interest rate hike is “more likely than not” if the Iran war continues He warns a jump in inflation is “quite baked in at this point” even in a scenario where there is a rapid deescalation If energy prices go back to “where they were” before this week’s sharp drop in oil prices, a “second rise is probably more likely than not,” Bailey says This is now the central risk to Andy Burnham’s government. If Trump escalates again in Iran, the next year starts to look very difficult for the PM. Even if he doesn’t Britain isn’t out of the woods Traders now put the odds of back-to-back interest rate rises in December at 50-50 On Bloomberg TV free to watch here: