Been a while since I traded a culture market on Polymarket, but this one looks quite mispriced. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just posted the best first-day presale ticket numbers in five years. Polymarket is pricing the film at a 16% likelihood of having the biggest opening weekend of 2026. Spider-Man No Way Home had a $600m worldwide opening in Dec 2021, and non-Spider-Man Marvel box office numbers have been trash since Endgame. I also see a quick trade: buy now, exit after opening weekend (July 31) and before Doomsday presale numbers hit. That said, there's a very reasonable chance this resolves YES by end of year. IMO, the dark horse is Toy Story 5 (4.5% seems low for Pixar's flagship franchise). Took a much smaller punt on that.