My ideal scenario on bitcoin:native is this...
I have talked about how important it is that we continue to hold and stay above 2025 Yearly Lows, that has been my bull-case/bear-case thesis.
Above it, we can continue to move higher, below it we need to be open for downside.
As long as we continue to hold above $74,492 area on weekly closes, I remain bullish and looking for more upside.
Ideally, we continue up from here, next level of importance to me would be 2025 Summer Lows, around $98,173. We drive higher towards that area before seeing a real correction.
When does that real correction come? You guessed it, around or after Mid-Terms of this year. Post Mid-Term corrections have been dimensioning each cycle. 2018: -52%, 2022: -27% and for 2026 I think somewhere from -17% to -20% would be a good target for that correction that occurs.
A correction of roughly -20% from the 2025 Summer Lows would basically put us where we are sitting right now, $78k-$76k.
History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes is a good saying for this because although it hasn't painted exactly like prior years, I think it has been close enough for the bottom to be in on bitcoin:native.
When prices exceeds the 10/10 Massacre wick ($102,329), its full on balls to the wall ATH's and clear blue skies time.
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