Dune(@Dune):US CPI lands Wednesday, one of the last major data points before the Sept 15–16 FOMC. Consensus is 3.4% YoY. @Vanguard_Group says 3.3%. Prediction markets ($2.9M in volume combined) have been drifting toward Vanguard: while 3.4% leads (43% on @Kalshi, 42% on @Polymarket), 3.3% was at 31% four days ago, now 36%. Over the same stretch, September hike odds fell from 49% to 45% on both venues. Access Dune's prediction markets dataset, a consolidated tape across Kalshi and Polymarket:

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Dune@Dune

2026.08.11 13:00

US CPI lands Wednesday, one of the last major data points before the Sept 15–16 FOMC. Consensus is 3.4% YoY. @Vanguard_Group says 3.3%. Prediction markets ($2.9M in volume combined) have been drifting toward Vanguard: while 3.4% leads (43% on @Kalshi, 42% on @Polymarket), 3.3% was at 31% four days ago, now 36%. Over the same stretch, September hike odds fell from 49% to 45% on both venues. Access Dune's prediction markets dataset, a consolidated tape across Kalshi and Polymarket:

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