Every market has a fellow who is certain the prices are wrong and that he alone knows the right ones. Usually the market charges him tuition for this belief. Occasionally, it hands him the Treasury. Consider the record. In 2000, Scott Bessent left Soros to run $1 billion of his own. Five years later, the fund no longer existed. In 2015 he tried again with Key Square, co-founded with Soros alum Michael Germino and seeded with $2 billion of Soros money — which is a bit like failing your driving test and being handed a Ferrari. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and finished 2023 at $577 million. Institutional investors reportedly went from 180 to 20, a retention rate that would embarrass a gym in February. And in 2018, Soros — the man who staked him — took his chips off the table. When your own anchor investor would rather not watch, that is not typically a buy signal. Which brings us to the question: is the man now confidently dictating where oil, the dollar, Treasury yields, and stocks ought to trade a macro mastermind the market tragically failed to appreciate? Or did the market spend two decades doing its due diligence on him — and sell? He believes he’s smarter than the market. The market already graded that exam. Twice.