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Daniel Romero
@HyperTechInvest
Analyst. Semiconductors, data centers & physical AI. Portfolio and investment theses on Substack Join 14,000+ readers:
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How on earth would 2–3 GW of compute generate only $17B in revenue for $IREN in 2030? Something is wrong here Also, modelling adjusted EBITDA for a neocloud? I’d like to see the full report. This snapshot feels extremely superficial
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Bernstein models $IREN scaling to ~5.8 GW longer term with cloud revenue reaching ~$17B and adjusted EBITDA ~$13B by 2030. Interesting that they assume Childress stays flat at 750 MW so almost all of that upside comes from proving Sweetwater design can be repeated across Oklahoma, Australia and Europe. Thats where the opportunity gets really large if IREN can execute with three-year contract pricing already up 125% even as the note also models ~$65B of incremental CapEx before the full revenue ramp.
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