Orbital AI arrives in 2028. Not 2030. Not 2035. Not 2038.
It needs two things.
First, launch below roughly $700 per kilogram. That's the cost point where orbit beats a terrestrial build. Starship gets there, and I don't think it even needs full reusability to do it.
Second, hardware built for space. That's what SpaceX and Nvidia are developing now: a space-ready Vera Rubin NVL72 rack, with each satellite carrying about 250 kilowatts. Target completion is Q4 2027.
The scale math is simple. 250 kilowatts per satellite, 4,000 satellites, one gigawatt. A few hundred Starship flights.
After that, the constraint isn't technology. It's how many Starships SpaceX can build and fly.
Elon usually overpromises on timelines. This time the incentive is trillions of dollars, and I think he hits it.
$SPCX on
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