Confused by markets? They're in a weird place rn - AI infra is down 35% from ATH, but up 35% from recent lows - good SaaS is up 50% from lows, but down 30% from ATH - Bitcoin is up 30% in 1 week, but still down 40% from ATH WTF is going on? Here's my take: 1. since AI infra stocks peaked in June, the demand for compute has only accelerated and the economics of the frontier labs have only improved. fundamentally, this trade looks much better today than it did back in June and then prices are 35% lower the main issue is that Oil is now back above $90, whereas when the infra stocks were at ATH, it was falling off a cliff into the $60s. The fear around the price of oil and rate hikes is holding the bottleneck stocks from going higher to be fair, many of these stocks are still valued at high multiples, but they have obvious growth into the next few years so in my mind they are currently coiling while we wait for Oil to settle and the rate fears to dissipate (which will happen) 2. good SaaS sold off way too much alongside the SaaSpocalypse and became way too undervalued, especially as Q2 earnings came out and the market realized that some SaaS is accelerating from AI, not being disrupted. Those are the companies that are now up 50% from lows and are now back to more reasonable multiples (though I think there is still room for some of these to go higher without macro changing) the companies are moving on earnings from low multiples, so even during an oil/rate fear, they can go higher so long as adoption goes higher (which it is) the fear around Oil/rates are holding them back from reaching pro SaaSpocalypse multiples, though I'm unsure we will ever get back to that level anyway with the ongoing fear that AI will eventually disrupt all SaaS 3. Bitcoin responded to the treasury intervention to increase bond buybacks as they lose control of the long-end and will need to continue to intervene to manage this Bitcoin and crypto looked ready to rebound into a bull market, but again, the price of Oil and rate fears the last few days have slowed down that move too If we look at the lows of the AI infra sell-off, everything has gone up together in the last few weeks before Oil and rate hike fears moved higher putting everything into a holding pattern Remove the Iran war and the price of Oil is at $60, inflation is not a concern and there is no world the FED is raising rates. At the same time, earnings are crushing, capex is expanding, unemployment is manageable... we would be in a killer bull market right now My take is that Oil will continue its longer than expected journey lower as the Iran war gets settled, the FED won't raise rates in September and if they do, its one rate hike just for Warsh to prove he's not Trumps puppet, because they know inflation is coming lower into the rest of this year we may continue to chop until the market figures this out, which might take us into October. I've been saying on the @milkroadai podcast for weeks now that we are going to chop for a while here but we are preparing for an EVERYTHING Bull market to explode in Q4 and into next year these moments in the market reward those who are patient. You can find great assets in infra, SaaS/application layer and crypto and I recommend holding all of them and buying on any dips we may get here in September There's too much momentum underneath the market right now that is boiling and ready to push the market higher once Oil plays ball and it will soon, as everyone is incentived for it to... even Iran If you'd like to see my portfolio and how I'm allocated, you can track it in real-time along with my ongoing asset analysis in Milk Road PRO. Sign up for just $1 here: And don't forget to follow me @kylereidhead for more insights on markets