Heard from LPs this week:
The past 9 months have felt like groundhog’s day - a very small set of deals dominating all LP convos. The fever pitch to access rounds of OpenAI and Anthropic by LPs (and even GPs calling us) at times - has reached levels I’ve never seen in my career.
And for good reason. Our rough math suggests that the VC investors’ gross profit on 3 LLMs currently equates to ~70% of ALL VC profits from the previous decade. “This time it’s different” mostly applies to the concentration - never has a tech super cycle declared such a small number of massive winners in such a short amount of time.
The LP conversations are now shifting but we’re still on the same companies. LPs now preparing for IPOs and the LLM transition to public mkts - how to access at IPO, how the stocks will trade, liquidity dynamics, etc.
9 months from now will our convos still be focused on the same small group of companies??