Milk Road AI(@MilkRoadAI):What if the AI boom is real but the RETURNS never show up? That's the base case from Jefferies Chris Wood, and it's going viral again tonight as Asian chip stocks crash. His weekly GREED & fear note says the most likely long term outcome is "massive capital destruction in the US," with market share going to cheaper open source Chinese models. He has numbers to back it up because the top Chinese models processed 36.39 trillion tokens on OpenRouter in the week to July 19, up from 4.37 trillion in late April while the top United States models processed 7.39 trillion. Spending isn't slowing down either, Jefferies expects the four biggest United States hyperscalers to spend about $695 billion on capex in 2026 and $870 billion in 2027. Wood says the trigger for unwinding all of this would be credit markets refusing to keep funding it. The bull answer is that cheaper tokens mean MORE compute and demand for chips keeps rising whichever model wins. The real question is who captures the profit.

2026.10.15 06:28

What if the AI boom is real but the RETURNS never show up? That's the base case from Jefferies Chris Wood, and it's going viral again tonight as Asian chip stocks crash. His weekly GREED & fear note says the most likely long term outcome is "massive capital destruction in the US," with market share going to cheaper open source Chinese models. He has numbers to back it up because the top Chinese models processed 36.39 trillion tokens on OpenRouter in the week to July 19, up from 4.37 trillion in late April while the top United States models processed 7.39 trillion. Spending isn't slowing down either, Jefferies expects the four biggest United States hyperscalers to spend about $695 billion on capex in 2026 and $870 billion in 2027. Wood says the trigger for unwinding all of this would be credit markets refusing to keep funding it. The bull answer is that cheaper tokens mean MORE compute and demand for chips keeps rising whichever model wins. The real question is who captures the profit.

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Melvin@MelvinInvests

2026.10.08 19:21

This chart explains exactly why OpenAI and Anthropic will likely end up missing their future revenue forecasts. Look at what is happening with opensource AI models. Models with open weights now account for nearly 78% of token volume on this AI gateway, compared to just 22% for closed models and that is a HUGE problem for both companies. As open models continue getting better, developers and enterprises have more reasons to move away from expensive proprietary models. They can run open models themselves, use cheaper inference providers, and avoid paying a premium for every token. That puts pressure on pricing, margins, and ultimately revenue growth. Even if AI usage continues exploding, it doesn't necessarily mean OpenAI and Anthropic will capture all that spending. But this is actually extremely bullish for the broader AI infrastructure buildout. Even if OpenAI and Anthropic capture a smaller share of AI spending, the demand for compute isn't going anywhere. If anything, cheaper and more accessible models could accelerate AI adoption, driving even more demand for GPUs, memory, networking, power, and data centers. This is why I continue to be so bullish on the companies supplying the infrastructure behind AI.

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