Milk Road Macro(@MilkRoadMacro):THE BOND MARKET IS COLLAPSING The US 10 year yield is at 4.55% for the first time since May 2025. Every time the 10 year yield has crossed 4.5%, it has coincided with a downturn in the S&P 500. The 10 year yield sets the floor on everything else: Mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, what it costs the government to borrow. When it moves, the whole economy reprices. Kevin Warsh walks in as new Fed Chair today carrying all of this. Cut rates and inflation accelerates from 3.8%. Hold and yields keep climbing while delinquencies build. Hike into a $2T annual deficit and find out what breaks first. There's no clean option. Last April, Trump's team hit pause on tariffs specifically because yields reached these levels and something broke in the Treasury market. We're back at those levels. Chart source: @BullTheoryio

2026.05.15 13:52

THE BOND MARKET IS COLLAPSING The US 10 year yield is at 4.55% for the first time since May 2025. Every time the 10 year yield has crossed 4.5%, it has coincided with a downturn in the S&P 500. The 10 year yield sets the floor on everything else: Mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, what it costs the government to borrow. When it moves, the whole economy reprices. Kevin Warsh walks in as new Fed Chair today carrying all of this. Cut rates and inflation accelerates from 3.8%. Hold and yields keep climbing while delinquencies build. Hike into a $2T annual deficit and find out what breaks first. There's no clean option. Last April, Trump's team hit pause on tariffs specifically because yields reached these levels and something broke in the Treasury market. We're back at those levels. Chart source: @BullTheoryio

显示更多

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

2026.05.15 13:05

Our 5th warning: The bond market crisis is intensifying. The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025. After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today. As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable. We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market. Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out. We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs. Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.

显示更多