Nick Timiraos(@NickTimiraos):SF Fed President Mary Daly is giving a speech tonight (Thursday morning in Tokyo) laying out a bimodal outlook. She said scenario one had been and remains her base case, but scenario two has really been gaining ground and you should “be thoughtful enough to move it to the front of your desk.” Why didn’t the Fed move in July? She said this isn’t really about fine-tuning. This is about determining whether you’re in a different world, and one that requires a bigger policy adjustment. “We will get more information… and we might have a very different situation” if recent shocks subside.

2026.08.06 01:12

SF Fed President Mary Daly is giving a speech tonight (Thursday morning in Tokyo) laying out a bimodal outlook. She said scenario one had been and remains her base case, but scenario two has really been gaining ground and you should “be thoughtful enough to move it to the front of your desk.” Why didn’t the Fed move in July? She said this isn’t really about fine-tuning. This is about determining whether you’re in a different world, and one that requires a bigger policy adjustment. “We will get more information… and we might have a very different situation” if recent shocks subside.

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