Nutty(@NuttyCLD):Two months on from SemiAnalysis's CPO delay thesis, I've heard so much on this that "optical" and "CPO" have become tiring words. That doesn't mean you can afford to ignore them. What matters is a shift in framing. You may not actually need to pin down exactly when CPO scales into meaningful volume. Instead of predicting the date, watch the order in which the supply chain prepares for it. Test equipment orders come first, then capacity gets reserved, then real money gets committed against it. That isn't expectation. It's cash tied to future volume. @damnang2's latest piece goes straight at that sequence.

2026.08.15 05:55

Two months on from SemiAnalysis's CPO delay thesis, I've heard so much on this that "optical" and "CPO" have become tiring words. That doesn't mean you can afford to ignore them. What matters is a shift in framing. You may not actually need to pin down exactly when CPO scales into meaningful volume. Instead of predicting the date, watch the order in which the supply chain prepares for it. Test equipment orders come first, then capacity gets reserved, then real money gets committed against it. That isn't expectation. It's cash tied to future volume. @damnang2's latest piece goes straight at that sequence.

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