CryptoQuant CEO 认错"乌龙":杠杆基金未转多头,但 BTC 空头一年缩水 50%
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju 发文更正早前 CME 数据解读,承认将"可报告总持仓"(Total Reportables)误标为"杠杆基金"(Leveraged Funds)。
最新 CFTC 数据(截至 8月4日)显示:可报告总持仓仍温和净多头,但幅度较小;杠杆基金在标准 BTC 期货上仍为净空头,但过去一年净空头规模已缩减约 50%(以 BTC 计价),因基差交易优势丧失,基差收益率已低于美债收益率。
杠杆基金在 Micro BTC 期货上净多头,但持仓仅 394 BTC,规模微不足道(仅占标准期货净空头的 1%)。
Ki Young Ju 表示"杠杆基金整体尚未翻转净多头,但结构性空头正在明显消退,可能包括套利平仓和方向性调仓"。
Correction on my earlier CME post: I mislabeled Total Reportables as Leveraged Funds.
What the data actually shows (CFTC, as of Aug 4, futures-only):
• Total Reportables (all large traders, mostly institutional) are modestly net long. So the directional takeaway holds, though the margin is thin. The correction is to the cohort label. This isn't specific to hedge funds and also includes asset managers, dealers, and other reportable traders.
• Leveraged Funds are still net short on standard BTC futures, but their net short position has shrunk by about 50% in BTC terms over the past year as the basis trade lost its edge, with the basis falling below Treasury yields. They are net long on Micro BTC futures, but the position is not meaningful in size at just +394 BTC, roughly 1% of the standard futures net short.
Leveraged Funds as a whole haven't flipped net long yet, but their structural short is clearly fading. This likely includes both carry-trade unwinds and shifts in directional positioning.
Apologies for the confusion. Keeping the original post up with this correction for transparency.
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