Holger Zschaepitz(@Schuldensuehner):Good Morning from Latvia, where the economy has quietly outgrown the Eurozone since the pandemic: real GDP is 8.5% above end-2019 levels, vs 6.7% for the Eurozone. But the Baltic gap is striking: Lithuania +16.6%, Estonia +2.9%. Latvia’s bigger problem is demographic: the population is projected to shrink by a third by 2070, while the public pension replacement rate could plunge from 56% in 2022 to 24% by 2050; the steepest decline in the EU. And the near-term picture isn’t exactly booming either: the IMF expects just 1.8% growth in 2026, alongside 4% inflation: a country still converging w/Europe but rapidly running out of people.

2026.08.09 06:34

Good Morning from Latvia, where the economy has quietly outgrown the Eurozone since the pandemic: real GDP is 8.5% above end-2019 levels, vs 6.7% for the Eurozone. But the Baltic gap is striking: Lithuania +16.6%, Estonia +2.9%. Latvia’s bigger problem is demographic: the population is projected to shrink by a third by 2070, while the public pension replacement rate could plunge from 56% in 2022 to 24% by 2050; the steepest decline in the EU. And the near-term picture isn’t exactly booming either: the IMF expects just 1.8% growth in 2026, alongside 4% inflation: a country still converging w/Europe but rapidly running out of people.

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