Semiconductor Insider(@SemiconductorsX):China’s YMTC expects the global memory shortage to last at least another three years, according to an anonymous employee quoted by The Wire China. The company has already raised NAND prices and shifted capacity toward higher-margin chips. That view undercuts forecasts calling for oversupply by the end of next year. Even a major Chinese producer, operating under export controls and capacity limits, is signaling sustained tightness rather than a quick return to excess supply. If YMTC is right, pricing power and allocation pressure in NAND could persist well into 2029. Models assuming a rapid rebalance may be underestimating both demand and the difficulty of adding meaningful new capacity.

2026.10.05 04:52

China’s YMTC expects the global memory shortage to last at least another three years, according to an anonymous employee quoted by The Wire China. The company has already raised NAND prices and shifted capacity toward higher-margin chips. That view undercuts forecasts calling for oversupply by the end of next year. Even a major Chinese producer, operating under export controls and capacity limits, is signaling sustained tightness rather than a quick return to excess supply. If YMTC is right, pricing power and allocation pressure in NAND could persist well into 2029. Models assuming a rapid rebalance may be underestimating both demand and the difficulty of adding meaningful new capacity.

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