Shanghai Macro Strategist(@ShanghaiMacro):Macro investors make the most money by betting against major trends when they become unsustainable. If you ask me which major macro trend looks the most unsustainable today, I would not point to rising US long-end yields or the BOJ continuing to stay behind the curve. I would point instead to the chart below: Chinese real investment growth has collapsed to a staggering -7%—a historical low outside of the initial COVID-19 shock. In my view, this is arguably the most unsustainable macro trend in the world today—and one that investors should pay very close attention to, and potentially position for a reversal, in the coming quarters.

2026.09.01 02:43

Macro investors make the most money by betting against major trends when they become unsustainable. If you ask me which major macro trend looks the most unsustainable today, I would not point to rising US long-end yields or the BOJ continuing to stay behind the curve. I would point instead to the chart below: Chinese real investment growth has collapsed to a staggering -7%—a historical low outside of the initial COVID-19 shock. In my view, this is arguably the most unsustainable macro trend in the world today—and one that investors should pay very close attention to, and potentially position for a reversal, in the coming quarters.

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