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True North
@TNorth
True North is a team of investors and analysts exploring the outer edges of Bitcoin, digital credit, finance and macro economics.
加入 October 2024
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mNAV at 2.0 is where the old short trade gets interesting again. The setup as described on tape: at the end of the last bear market the short case was that ATM issuance made long IBIT against short MSTR close to a free trade. It worked, because Bitcoin fell. The counter raised now is timing. Saylor talks about ripping the wings off the shorts, and that is hard to do while publishing exactly when you buy. The cadence of transparency that reassures holders also tells a short desk which week to expect. The second argument is about the range. mNAV at 2.0 drifting to 1.75 is 0.25 of discount to trend, and the view given is to let the multiple run instead of managing it inside a quarter point. The comparison used is PE multiple expansion. That view was put to the investor relations team directly, at an event in Las Vegas. $MSTR bitcoin:native @MasonFoard @GrainofSaltSF
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