Otavio (Tavi) Costa(@TaviCosta):Here is a reminder that well before the war broke out: The number of operating rigs had already fallen by roughly 34% over the prior three years in the most critical US energy basin. That has serious implications for future oil supply, and the market is still underestimating the magnitude of the issue, particularly in the context of tightening global dynamics. “Experts” often attribute this decline to efficiency gains, but that’s only part of the story. What tends to be overlooked is that rig count leads production, and we have yet to fully feel the downstream impact of this contraction in activity.

2026.04.24 02:00

Here is a reminder that well before the war broke out: The number of operating rigs had already fallen by roughly 34% over the prior three years in the most critical US energy basin. That has serious implications for future oil supply, and the market is still underestimating the magnitude of the issue, particularly in the context of tightening global dynamics. “Experts” often attribute this decline to efficiency gains, but that’s only part of the story. What tends to be overlooked is that rig count leads production, and we have yet to fully feel the downstream impact of this contraction in activity.

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