MY TRADER IDENTITY: EXPECTED VALUE MAXIMALIST ($TLT CASE STUDY)
Many people wrongly think that I hate futures. I don’t. My best trade ever was in futures. The key is knowing what to trade and when.
A good example is the recent move in U.S. Treasuries. Many traders are expressing the trade through TLT when, depending on the trade, /ZB may be a more efficient instrument.
In this case, futures offer several potential advantages:
-Favorable tax treatment.
-Greater capital efficiency.
-Nearly 24-hour trading.
-Potentially lower transaction costs depending on your broker and size.
The point is to find where the best expected value is, then find the best product to express that trade idea.
That is why I lose my mind when someone identifies as an /ES trader or an /NQ trader. Even if those are the right instruments sometimes, you’re inevitably missing incredible opportunities elsewhere when you restrict yourself to one market.
Sure, trade futures. But when the expected value is incredible in oil, gold, Treasuries, equities, or somewhere else, move to where your edge is greatest.
I have no trader identity other than wanting to find where my skillset provides me the highest expected value.