Eric的这个观点恐怕也是很多交易员的隐形共识。
由此引发的反身性风险会迫使美国股市更加的财政化、养老金化以及政治化。
于是,从资产负债表的视角里,你会发现央行的表、财政的表以及居民的表,已经很难分的很开。
上涨的时候它是私人的收益,大暴跌就会变成公共的问题。
或者说股市的稳定和财政稳定强挂钩。于是央行就越加难以保持独立性。因为需要干预的不是一次下跌,而是由于股市暴跌引发的资产负债表快速收缩的危机。
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I published a note today that I've been thinking about for months.. About how the US stock market has arguably become too big and too imp to fail.. It's basically America's retirement fund now and poss even the savior of social security which is expected to run out of money in less than 10yrs
-Curr 55% of ppl own stocks, by far most in world. And w/ Trump Accounts bringing in 28 million add'l americans into stock ownership the vast majority of ppl (incl Top 1% (who own HALF of stock mkt), middle class and lower income) will have financial interest in the health of stock mkt and they're all voters = the political pressure to keep stocks out of a prolonged bear market is going to be very powerful.
-As such I think there's good chance the Fed will buy equity ETFs in the next major downturn to support market and it will be common practice going fwd. China and Japan already do this. They may even target certain sectors or Capex cos with the purchases.
-This is a massive variable that I feel like is a blind spot among the experts out there and why the bears get run over time and time again altho I think investors are onto it as evidenced by the persistent flows into ETFs during pullbacks as well as a survey of 1000 ppl showing 3/4 of them are confident the Fed will bail out markets in next crisis.
-This is just one byproduct of the 'Nothing Stops This Train' monetary supply explosion and debt extravaganza sweeping the world but esp in US which at this point feels irreversable.. Thoughts? lol
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