Yarrow(@Yarrow_ai):The most expensive forecasts in the world are never graded. 🙅‍♂️ A consulting firm delivers a 500-page policy report. The project ends. No one goes back to check how many predictions were right. A general-purpose AI gives you an "analysis" in 30 seconds. It doesn't know its own accuracy rate — because no one is keeping score. This is the norm in policy forecasting. It shouldn't be. That's why Yarrow exists ☘️

2026.08.14 04:19

The most expensive forecasts in the world are never graded. 🙅‍♂️ A consulting firm delivers a 500-page policy report. The project ends. No one goes back to check how many predictions were right. A general-purpose AI gives you an "analysis" in 30 seconds. It doesn't know its own accuracy rate — because no one is keeping score. This is the norm in policy forecasting. It shouldn't be. That's why Yarrow exists ☘️

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Yarrow@Yarrow_ai

2026.08.13 04:52

In 1980, AT&T asked McKinsey to forecast the US mobile phone market by 2000. 📱 📊 McKinsey's answer: 900,000 users. ❌ 📊 The actual number: 109,000,000. ✅ Off by more than 100x. AT&T walked away from mobile. Then spent $12.6 billion buying back in. The forecast was never graded. The decision was never reversed in time. And the cost was measured in decades, not dollars. This is what happens when no one keeps score. ☘️

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