New poll of 37 most competitive CDs (ie, races that will decide control of Congress) for @CookPolitical by NewRiver Strategies & GS Strategy Group. These CDs, on average, voted for Trump by 5pts - now prefer a generic Dem by 2 pts. (7 point swing to Dems since ‘24). Shows obvious pathway to majority for D’s, as well as a ceiling (universe remains the 25 or so R-held seats that voted Trump by 10 pts or less). But, to me, the most interesting finding was that these voters see this election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Among indies, just 20% prefer a candidate to be a check on Trump - 59% want a candidate who will change system overall. This also suggests that these voters would want a Dem-led Congress that focuses more on an agenda that tackles corruption + institutional rot than one that focuses solely on Trump & his overreach.