It's been a great two year run in Japanese Banks. Ryukyus, Juroku, and Mebuki are up 150% - 200%, roughly double peers and triple the Topix, and 50% since the start of the year.
The valuations are a bit high relative to my new positions, so I've sold half of each.
For the JP Regional Bank fans, one of my "small cap repurchasers" is Bank of the Ryukyus, which does business in Okinawa.
In terms of capital allocation, it pays a respectable 3.7% dividend, and is also finally repurchasing shares, about 1% a year. Not huge, but income is likely to increase substantially, as 20% of the banks assets are parked in short term JP gov bonds, which will provide added yield as rates rise.
EPS is stable around 140 Yen a share, which means at the current price of 1045, is roughly 7.5x forward earnings. In typical fashion, Ryukyus trades at just 0.3x its tangible book value per share.
The repurchase of just 1% of shares a year at a 66% discount to tangible book value should "juice" TBV by 0.6% a year, and I have a feeling a larger repurchase will be announced for 2025.
The stated aim in the investor friendly presentation is to achieve a 1x PBR. Obviously, it will take a lot of work for that to happen, but with a dividend increasing roughly 7% a year over the last 3 years, and a new buyback, I would say they are doing better than most.
Interestingly, after the August meltdown where the Nikkei dropped 10%+, Ryukyus has not recovered while all of its peers have. It's a $300 M USD market cap bank, relatively small, so I think it has just flown under the radar.
This is part of my larger JP bank basket, which I plan to have an article out on, sometime in the future.
There are a lot of larger competitors, like Fukuoka at 11x PE and a 3% dividend and 0.8x book, but I'd rather purchase the underdog with a history of repurchasing shares, with substantial upside potential. These are long term investments for me, they do substantially all of their business in Japan, so I don't convert the currency. I borrow at 1%, let the 3.7% dividend cover the interest payments, and hope for some capital appreciation.
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