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Ben chabot
@chabot_ben
Professor at Northwestern University. Teach finance at UC-Booth. Former Economist and Senior Policy Advisor at Federal Reserve and Professor at UMich and Yale.
加入 June 2014
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The difference between the implied vol on the ATM SPY options that exercise at 5:30pm tonight and the SP500 future options that exercise at 4pm today is now up 19.2 points. Market expects a move in S&P 500 with the NVDA earnings. Explained below...
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Nothing I post is ever investment advice... NVDA releases earnings after the close (typically around 4:20ET) and option traders expect it to be a major market mover. On the blog I explain how to use the quirk in exercise time between the S&P500 futures 0DTE options and the S&P500 ETF options to construct an option from 4-5:30PM today. see: The ES Futures options close and either exercise or expire automatically at exactly 4pm ET. But ETF options have an extended trading session until 4:15pm and can be exercised until the OCC deadline of 5:30pm ET (your broker will demand earlier instructions to have time to process). The difference between the price of the SPY and ES options therefore tell us traders' expectations about the volatility from 4-5:30pm today. The ATM SPY call IV is 6.5 pts above the ATM ES call. And the SPY put trades 7.1 IV points above the similar ES put. (these numbers tend to increase as we get closer to 4pm and the likelihood that the ATM strike now will be the ATM strike at 4pm increases) Expect a market moving report from NVDA
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