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Dwarkesh Patel
@dwarkesh_sp
加入 December 2019
1.1K 正在关注    270.8K 粉丝
.@paulfchristiano has such an crazy good prediction record. These are some quotes from way back in 2021 during a debate he was having with Eliezer about takeoff speeds: "So like, I think we are going to have crappy coding assistants, and then slightly less crappy coding assistants, and so on. And they will be improving the speed of coding very significantly before the end times. "[Before ASI, we'll have] hundreds of billions of dollars of spending at google on automating AI R&D... massive scaleups in semiconductor manufacturing, bidding up prices of inputs crazily... massive speculative rises in AI company valuations financing a significant fraction of GWP into AI R&D (+hardware R&D, +building new clusters) .... largely in hopes of future profit / reinvested AI outputs (that have high market cap), but also revenues are probably in the trillions?" Honestly, it's pretty scary that people like Paul, who predicted the shape of our currently world so far in advance, think superintelligences taking over and disempowering humanity is eminently plausible. All this to say, you should consider working with him.
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