Why the Treasury Yield Surge Shouldn't Be as Big a Surprise as it is: It is striking how many market participants have been surprised by the recent surge in US yields. The fundamental drivers have been evident for some time: Borrowing plans for major issuers, such as the government and large corporates (particularly tech), have been well telegraphed. The Federal Reserve has been signaling strong economic activity. The reasons behind the declining willingness and capacity of some traditional holders/buyers of US bonds have been well covered. The challenging quest to define the endpoint for the US/Israel-Iran conflict has been widely debated. What is playing a far larger role than it should is psychological anchoring: The collective mindset shaped by more than a decade of artificially low, repressed yields following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. #economy# #markets# #yields# #bonds#