Ernie Tedeschi
@ernietedeschi
Personal account. Chief economist at @Stripe. Former Director of Economics at @The_Budget_Lab. Former Chief Economist at @WhiteHouseCEA.
加入 April 2009
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Also prediction markets are still helpful tools even when they are just composites of CW. It’s useful to have a quantitative measure of sentiment!
@mattyglesias I think this is a case where the surface-level critique is dumb (yes 5% chances should happen 5%) but the underlying sentiment is more that prediction markets are often treated as providing oracular precision when they're often more summations of the (sometimes flawed) CW.
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