the case for banning stablecoin yield is empirically dead
the White House published the math, and the bank lobby is still making the argument anyway
baseline from the CEA report: a yield prohibition increases bank lending by $2.1 billion. against a $12 trillion loan book, that is 0.02%. it costs $800 million in consumer welfare to get there
to get the lending boost above 4%, you have to assume the stablecoin market grows 6x, all reserves sit in cash, and the Fed abandons its framework. the CEA called those conditions implausible
the prohibition is not protecting bank lending. it is protecting bank spreads. standard checking accounts pay 0.01% while issuers earn 3–4% on T-bill reserves
anyone running the deposit-flight argument after April 8 is no longer making an empirical claim
the math is public now