Joshua Achiam(@jachiam0):I share this concern. I'll also note, as someone who is very safety concerned (and believes that existential risk is real) but doesn't believe in the most extreme x-risk estimates, there is a lot of social pressure in the field pushing scientists to increase their risk estimates. You can unlock a lot of friends, favors, and funding if you are willing to be comparatively extreme and side with the folks saying we will literally all die in ten years. I don't think the incentives in AI safety are all that epistemically healthy, even if they're directionally right about the importance of this subject and many of the plausible risks.

2026.09.11 06:35

I share this concern. I'll also note, as someone who is very safety concerned (and believes that existential risk is real) but doesn't believe in the most extreme x-risk estimates, there is a lot of social pressure in the field pushing scientists to increase their risk estimates. You can unlock a lot of friends, favors, and funding if you are willing to be comparatively extreme and side with the folks saying we will literally all die in ten years. I don't think the incentives in AI safety are all that epistemically healthy, even if they're directionally right about the importance of this subject and many of the plausible risks.

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