JP Insights(@jpinsights):In June, I modeled $204B of FY2028 AI revenue for $AVGO, roughly 26% above the consensus implied by the estimates I was using. Management now expects $230B. My instinct was that the slowdown built into those estimates didn’t fit the orders Broadcom was taking. I expected the ramp to continue longer. Even then, I underestimated the 2028 business management would eventually describe. I was too high on 2027, though. My $124B compares with management’s $115B, so I can’t claim the whole forecast was right. I’ve rebuilt the earnings model and worked backwards from the returns I would want at this price. Broadcom remains one of my highest-conviction holdings, and the full article explains why. Link in bio.

2026.09.06 08:56

In June, I modeled $204B of FY2028 AI revenue for $AVGO, roughly 26% above the consensus implied by the estimates I was using. Management now expects $230B. My instinct was that the slowdown built into those estimates didn’t fit the orders Broadcom was taking. I expected the ramp to continue longer. Even then, I underestimated the 2028 business management would eventually describe. I was too high on 2027, though. My $124B compares with management’s $115B, so I can’t claim the whole forecast was right. I’ve rebuilt the earnings model and worked backwards from the returns I would want at this price. Broadcom remains one of my highest-conviction holdings, and the full article explains why. Link in bio.

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