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Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at chinfinpettis@yahoo.com
加入 October 2017
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Caixin: "China has unveiled a sweeping five-year plan for its electronic information manufacturing sector, aiming to boost the industry’s annual revenue beyond 30 trillion yuan ($4.5 trillion) by 2030." This is extraordinarily ambitious. There is no directly comparable global measure because China’s definition is unusually broad, encompassing everything from integrated circuits and advanced computing to consumer electronics and energy electronics. But global consumer-electronics manufacturing generated about $2.1 trillion in 2025, while global semiconductor sales were under $1 trillion. China’s target therefore implies that it expects Chinese electronic-information manufacturing to account for an extraordinarily large share of global production by 2030. This requires of course both that the massive expansion in its global share can occur without a collapse in profits, and that the the rest of the world (especially East Asia, where much of the production is currently concentrated) is willing to accommodate the Chinese target by giving up its own share of production.
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