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nextbigfuture
@nextbigfuture
Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8)
加入 May 2008
5.1K 正在关注    20.4K 粉丝
Chris Camillo — the investor who's turned a small stake into as much as $100M — says Tesla's robotaxi and Cybercab story is already priced into the stock. Went through the actual numbers on a whiteboard and show why we think he's missing several layers. FSD subscription revenue today, the Hardware 4 legacy fleet (6M+ vehicles), Cybercab unit economics, and where robotaxi money really comes from vs. where people assume it comes from. Chris Camillo dismisses 1 million robotaxi making $30 billion per year and take many year. Is Waymo or Tesla actually ahead right now? FSD subscription revenue vs. Waymo's robotaxi revenue Hardware payback: how fast Tesla earns back the FSD hardware cost. The 6 million Hardware 4 cars nobody's pricing in. Add ing 6 million FSD is $6 billion per year. Any changes margins. Cybercab unit economics $30K-$50K per vehicle, gross vs. net Why we think this isn't priced in — the real total What IS actually priced in: institutional ownership, optionality Optimus, semi, AI5 chips, and the next leg up What's coming next We're not saying Chris is wrong about everything — we agree part of the story is priced in. Where we disagree is how much, and which pieces (FSD legacy fleet, Hardware 4 monetization, AI5/semiconductor business) the market still isn't counting.
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