To make this actually testable in the future, here’s my bar for affordable Level 5:
• ≤$30k to buy (cheap new car), or <$0.65/occupied mile as a robotaxi
• No geofence, remote operator, or special infrastructure
• No dependence on GPS or centimeter-accurate HD maps — a normal map + onboard perception should be enough
• Drives anywhere on Earth that a competent human can reasonably drive
• Handles weather, poor markings, construction, closures, crowded streets, events, pedestrians, cyclists, hand signals, police directing traffic, and informal negotiation with humans
• Handles novel situations and bad/outdated maps
• Completes the whole trip: pickup/dropoff, rerouting, pulling over, parking, and recovering when things go wrong
• Never needs a human to take over
That’s the bar I think is still 5-10 years away.
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