HSBC Raises $NVDA PT to $325 from $295 - Buy; ER Preview Analyst comments: "At its upcoming 1QFY27 results announcement on May 20, we expect NVIDIA to report 1QFY27 revenue of USD81.1 billion, 4%/3% higher than management guidance and Visible Alpha consensus estimates of USD78.0 billion/USD78.6 billion. We also expect 2QFY27E revenue of USD91.1 billion versus consensus estimate of USD85.6 billion, implying another “beat and raise” quarter. We also raise our FY28E EPS by 27% to USD13.01, 16% above consensus of USD11.20, on higher FY28E data center revenue of USD528 billion versus consensus of USD465.3 billion, on the back of an upward revision to chip-on-wafer-on-substrate allocation from 900,000 to 1.1 million wafers. Over the past five years, all major NVIDIA stock price movements have been led by a combination of its evolving AI product roadmap — starting with significant ASP pricing power with first-generation AI GPUs, A100 and H100 — driving significant earnings upside along with consistent “beat and raise” financial results. However, since the buzz around sovereign AI and the opportunity from neoclouds, no new narrative has emerged, and NVIDIA shares have underperformed the SOX over the last six months despite having two GTC events and two sets of financial results that beat estimates and raised expectations. Hence, we believe AI GPU earnings momentum and its upcoming Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra product roadmap have become less meaningful narratives for significant re-rating or share price upside potential. Despite the ever-increasing CAPEX trend by CSPs that shows no signs of abating, NVIDIA now has to share the CAPEX with memory makers, AI networking, and server CPU vendors. Hence, NVIDIA needs to show evidence of diversifying its non-CSP customer base to fuel its AI GPU momentum. New TAM opportunities via agentic AI server CPUs and its recent optics-related deals could also potentially be emerging narratives that could lead to more significant earnings revisions or re-rating." Analyst: Frank Lee