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wsjack 🇭🇰 |𝟎𝐱𝐔
@wsjack
ex-president @0xUClub , Ponzi lover,meme,e-beggar,degen,精通各种亏钱技巧 building @aveai_info @AveaiGlobal advisor @hodloai “Jack小饭桌”持续开放👀
加入 September 2022
8K 正在关注    12.9K 粉丝
Prediction markets need their own CA, and they also need their own Scan. Over the past couple of days, I spent some of my spare time outside work building a small product with OpenAI Codex in ChatGPT Pro: MarketScan. The reason I built it is that I increasingly feel products like @Polymarket and @predictdotfun should not only be understood as “prediction market exchanges.” In the long run, they may look more like base-layer infrastructure: providing markets, liquidity, settlement, and fee models. Their role may be closer to a public chain, a DEX, or a prediction market protocol. In crypto, many core capabilities of public chains and DEXs live in the backend: asset issuance, liquidity pools, swaps, LP fees, protocol revenue, and so on. But the products users interact with most often are not always the official protocol frontends. They are third-party trading tools and wallets like GMGN, Axiom, OKX Wallet, Binance Wallet, etc. These products wrap underlying liquidity with better data, better UX, and stronger trading workflows. I think prediction markets may evolve in a similar direction. Platforms like Polymarket and may increasingly become providers of markets and liquidity, while the upper layer will have more personalized frontends: copy-trading tools, smart-money tools, AI agent trading tools, group bots, dashboards, and vertical prediction market terminals. Especially in the AI era, everyone may be able to build their own preferred trading interface with AI. Frontends will become more customized, while the underlying platforms become more protocol-like. MarketScan itself is a small example of this thesis. I am not a full development team, and I am not working on this full-time. I just used spare time and AI coding tools to build a prediction market information tool that I personally felt should exist. If this is the direction, prediction markets should not rely only on “links” as their main format for discovery and distribution. Why do meme coins spread so fast in communities? One important reason is the CA. A contract address is plain text. It can be copied, forwarded, searched, tracked, and recognized by wallets, bots, market tools, and trading frontends. By contrast, prediction markets today are still mostly shared as “a Polymarket link” or “a link.” Links are not ideal in WeChat groups, QQ groups, Telegram, comment sections, and similar environments. They can be collapsed, filtered, blocked, or simply inconvenient to search again later. More importantly, relying on links also creates security risks, since malicious or poisoned links have become a common phishing and scam vector. But prediction markets already have similar low-level identifiers: condition IDs, event slugs, market slugs, and market IDs. These identifiers correspond to each event or market. In particular, the condition ID is closer to the on-chain identity of the smallest tradable unit. That is why I built MarketScan. MarketScan currently integrates Polymarket and You can search for a market using three types of input: a link, a slug, or a condition ID. MarketScan automatically detects the input and locates the corresponding event or market. It shows basic information, odds, Yes/No data, platform source, market ID, condition ID, event slug, market slug, original links, and other common identifiers. Everything important is copyable with one click. I also built ranking features into it. You can browse trending events and markets across different platforms, such as the hottest topics, highest-volume markets, popular markets, and markets with significant probability movement. So it is not only a lookup tool, but also an entry point for discovering active prediction markets. If Etherscan made addresses, contracts, and transactions readable, searchable, and shareable, then MarketScan is my attempt to make every prediction market event, every market, and every condition ID readable, searchable, and shareable as well. I believe the next stage of prediction market growth will not only come from official trading pages. It will also come from more open data layers, richer third-party frontends, and better tools for community distribution and AI-native workflows. MarketScan is my small experiment in that direction. Welcome to try it out. Feedback is very welcome, especially on what information tools prediction markets still need.
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