【 SNDK Investor Day信息梳理】 在 In Focus 2026 活动上，SanDisk 公布了一套覆盖 FY2028 至 FY2030 的多年财务框架。公司预计： 营收实现中双位数至高双位数增长（mid-to-high teens，大约 15%–19%），与 bit 出货量增长基本一致； Non-GAAP 毛利率维持在约 80%； Non-GAAP 营业利润率维持在约 75%； 在考虑税收、资本开支以及支持增长所需要的营运资本之后，调整后自由现金流率预计约为 50%。 SanDisk CFO Luis Visoso 表示：在完成业务所需要的投资之后，我们预计将把 100% 的 excess cash（超额现金）返还给股东。 这里面有几个非常重要的信息。 第一，80% GM 最重要的不是数字高，而是“Sustain”。这是整段话最值得注意的地方：“gross margins to sustain at approximately 80 percent”不是“peak at 80%”，也不是某一个季度达到 80%，而是管理层认为 FY28–FY30 这三年可以把 Non-GAAP GM 大致维持在 80%。 这对于 NAND 公司来说非常激进。传统 NAND 模型是： 供不应求 → ASP暴涨 → GM暴涨 → 厂商扩产 → 供给增加 → ASP下跌 → GM collapse。 而 SNDK 今天实际上是在告诉投资者：不要再按照传统 NAND 周期股的方法预测我们的 FY28–30 盈利。 第二，收入增长 mid-to-high teens，而且这个假设基本只依赖 bit growth。这句话也非常关键：“revenue to grow mid-to-high teens, consistent with bit growth”也就是说，管理层的长期模型大致假设：Bit growth ≈ 15%–19%，Revenue growth ≈ 15%–19%，这隐含的 ASP 假设接近稳定。 准确地说应该是：如果这个模型已经主要依靠 bit growth，而未来 NAND pricing 比模型假设更强，那么 Revenue 就存在进一步 upside。 这比依靠 ASP 每年上涨 15%–20%才能实现增长的模型质量高很多。 第三，这个 Revenue outlook 相对于 Street 的差异可能比 80% GM 更重要。FY28–FY30 Revenue CAGR ≈ 15%–19%。也就是说，Street 原来可能是在建模：FY27 = cycle peak，而 SNDK 管理层现在告诉市场：FY27不是 peak，FY28–FY30还要继续保持 mid-to-high teens growth。 如果管理层这个模型可信，真正需要发生的就是 FY28、FY29、FY30 revenue/EPS/FCF estimates 系统性上修。 第四，75% Operating Margin 意味着极其恐怖的 operating leverage。换句话说，大约 94% 的 gross profit 最终可以转化为 operating profit。 对于一个过去被当作 commodity memory company 定价的企业，这种盈利结构已经完全不像传统 NAND 厂商。 第五，50% FCF margin 是估值最值得关注的数字之一。 假设未来 Revenue 是 $50B：50% FCF margin意味着，FCF ≈ $25B。如果 Revenue 是 $60B：FCF ≈ $30B。 如果这个计算成立，那么市场实际上仍然在给 SNDK 一个非常低的 FCF multiple，因为市场并不完全相信这个盈利水平能够长期持续。20% FCF yield意味着：Price / FCF ≈ 5×。 所以接下来 SNDK 股价最大的驱动力未必是 FY28 FCF 本身继续上调，而是市场开始相信这个 FCF 是 sustainable，从而发生 multiple expansion。 第六，100% excess cash return 是另一个非常强的资本配置承诺， “return 100 percent of excess cash to our shareholders after investing in the business.”业务投资、CapEx、营运资金等需求满足之后 ， 剩余的 excess cash 100%返还股东。对于股东是一个重大利好 第七，也是整个模型最核心的问题：凭什么 NAND 能长期保持 80% GM？管理层给出的答案就是：NBM。 如果 FY28 大约 2/3 bit 都进入多年 NBM，那么 SNDK 希望建立：长期客户协议，更高需求可见度， 减少spot pricing exposure，更好的供需规划 所以 CFO 特意强调：“Our confidence in the sustainability of the model comes from our multi-year NBMs.”

Over the past two weeks, our team XDO has been working closely with @worldlibertyfi — and honestly, it’s been a real surprise for me. 最近两周，我们团队XDO开始和 @worldlibertyfi 密切合作，狠狠的教育了我！ Tbh, I had my own stereotypes at the beginning. Trump-backing, access to top-tier global resources — I assumed the team would be the type like: big vision, endless resources, everyone coming to them instead of the other way around. I mean, you can easily afford to be a “laid-back” team with this level of privilege and prestige.😂 说实话，刚开始接触的时候我是有刻板印象的。总统家族背景，全球顶流资源，我assume团体风格会是：愿景很大、资源很多，一定是所有的资源去找他们。可以猜想这种有顶级资源的美国团队有多么躺。 But after two weeks of working with them, I was genuinely impressed — even humbled. 但接触下来非常惊喜，甚至教育到我。 On nye, co-founder @ZachWitkoff was still handling interviews job. By Jan 2nd — when most people were still in holiday mode — their entire team was fully back in action. Every sync was well-prepared, execution was fast, and nothing was half-hearted. Even though many team members didn’t come from a Web3 background, everyone was actively and intensely learning. In every discussion, they consistently identified the single most critical key to success, made fast decisions, and mobilized the entire team to execute. From @ZachWitkoff & @zakfolkman founding-team-level market strategy decisions to execution, implementation, and even contract reviews — all of that can happen within a single day. 新年当天，Co-founder @ZachWitkoff 还在处理这面试的工作。1月2号，当大多数人还在休假模式的时候，他们已经全员到岗火力全开了。每次对接，准备充分，执行迅速，一点不含糊。虽然，很多人之前没有Web3背景，但是每个人在饥渴的学习Web3的知识。并且每次探讨中，总是可以找到决定事情成功的最核心的KEY，然后快速决策并全团队响应执行。是的，从大市场战略的Founding team决策到对其执行到落地执行包括审核合同，一天足以。 This made me reflect: why is a team with such a background working even harder than many startup founders? 这让我开始反思：为什么有这种背景的团队，反而比很多一般的创业者还拼？ My guess? Because the whole world is watching. If a normal project fails, you pivot and start over. But WLFI is different — with this kind of background, success is expected. That expectation pushes the founding team to focus on how to succeed even more. That pressure forces them to put in 200% effort to prove that what they build goes far beyond what their so-called “background” could ever hand them. 我猜的——因为全世界都在看。普通项目失败了，换个赛道重来就是。但 WLFI 不一样，顶着这种背景，成功变成了是应该的。所以，整个创始团队更聚焦在如何可以更加成功！这种压力，逼着他们必须用 200% 的努力去证明自己可以做的事情要远远超过他们“所谓的背景”可以给予的。 Another detail I noticed: their execution logic is extremely clear. It’s not the “we have resources, let’s just throw money at it” mindset. They are deliberately building long-term value step by step. They value every partner and every dollar — while also knowing how to turn those into weapons for rapid market capture. And when it comes to critical decisions, they don’t hesitate to invest heavily. You can imagine what this combination can ultimately become: top-tier resources + top-tier execution + a massive market = Massive future for @worldlibertyfi $USD1 By the way, this also validates a thesis I shared in my previous article (link below): in 2025, stablecoins are increasingly becoming the bridge to mainstream assets. Sustainability at the business level matters — and this is exactly the direction we’ve been betting on. 而且我观察到一个细节：他们团队做事的逻辑非常清晰，不是那种「有资源就随便造」的心态，而是真的在一步步构建长期价值。珍惜每一个合作伙伴，珍惜每一分钱，但是同时这些也可以成为快速抢占市场的武器。对于关键事情上，丝毫不吝惜。我们可以想象这种组合——顶级资源 + 顶级执行力 + 超级大的市场 WLFI USD1可以成为什么样最终形态。顺便说一句，也验证了我在之前一篇长文里的思考，今年稳定币成为连接主流资产的趋势越来越明显了。业务本身的可持续性。这也是我们一直在押注的方向。 So YEP! My view on WLFI has completely changed. This is a team that genuinely takes execution seriously, and have the power to make all dreams come true. 所以我现在对 WLFI 的看法彻底改变了。至少从合作体验来说，这是一个认真做事并且有实现造梦能力的团队。 If people with backgrounds are working this hard, what excuse do those without one have to be laid-back?? 「Don't make excuses for not being where you want to be. It usually comes down to not trying hard enough, or focusing on the wrong things.」 「Jiayi never used to create anxiety. But from now on, anxiety and self-reflection start with Jiayi.」 有背景的人都在拼命，没背景的凭什么躺平？ 「不要给自己的不够优秀找借口。大多数就是自己不够努力，或者努力方向不对！」 「Jiayi之前不制造焦虑。但是从现在开始，焦虑和反思从Jiayi开始。」 Side note: after deeply engaging with the founding team, I started allocating heavily into $ALTS (already 100% in profit so far) and $WLFI. I’m happy to say that so far, the results have been very encouraging. 题外话： 正式因为深度的接触了创始团队后。我开始重仓WLFI的DAT股票 $ALTS (且翻倍了）和 $WLFI。很开心，目前为止，让我看到了好的结果。 LONG Crypto 🚀 LONG Stablecoin 🚀 LONG Myself