Adam Livingston(@AdamBLiv):It is impossible for me to not be bullish on Bitcoin right now. Bitcoin is RISING through a real-yield regime it has literally never seen before. The 10Y real Treasury yield hit 2.68% this week - the highest level of the entire Bitcoin era. But the crazier number is 2.44%. That’s the average 10Y real yield over the last 40 Treasury sessions. The highest sustained 10Y real-yield regime in Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is up 17.4% over those same 40 sessions. This matters because real yields are the hurdle rate. When the government will pay you ~2.5% above inflation to sit in Treasuries, the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding monetary asset is enormous. For much of Bitcoin’s history, collapsing or negative real yields were gasoline. Right now the gasoline is gone. The macro headwind is sitting at a record. And Bitcoin is going up anyway. The lazy model that “Bitcoin only goes up when money is cheap” just ran into a very inconvenient chart:

2026.09.20 16:36

It is impossible for me to not be bullish on Bitcoin right now. Bitcoin is RISING through a real-yield regime it has literally never seen before. The 10Y real Treasury yield hit 2.68% this week - the highest level of the entire Bitcoin era. But the crazier number is 2.44%. That’s the average 10Y real yield over the last 40 Treasury sessions. The highest sustained 10Y real-yield regime in Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is up 17.4% over those same 40 sessions. This matters because real yields are the hurdle rate. When the government will pay you ~2.5% above inflation to sit in Treasuries, the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding monetary asset is enormous. For much of Bitcoin’s history, collapsing or negative real yields were gasoline. Right now the gasoline is gone. The macro headwind is sitting at a record. And Bitcoin is going up anyway. The lazy model that “Bitcoin only goes up when money is cheap” just ran into a very inconvenient chart: