Fuji Electric (TSE: 6504) A company can raise guidance and mean very little by it. What it cannot soften is when it has scheduled the money to go out. Fuji Electric (TSE: 6504) reported the June quarter with its data center power line down 3 percent in revenue. Same day, in the supplementary data file, that line is planned up 25 percent for the half and up 23 for the year. The capex schedule in the same file says how. Segment capital spending, June quarter actual and first half plan: Energy: 1.7bn yen actual, 10.5bn planned for the half Semiconductors: 2.8bn actual, 7.3bn planned Subtract the quarter from the half and you have the plan for the September quarter. Energy 8.8bn against 1.4bn a year ago, six times. Semiconductors 4.5bn against 13.7bn, one third. Company total 19.1bn against 18.2bn. The quarter as a whole barely moves. What is inside it moves six times one way and down two thirds the other. Context that cuts against the excitement. Company capex peaked at 85.2bn yen in the year to March 2025, came in at 56.7bn last year, and is planned at 56.0bn this year. This is not a spending cycle. It is a reallocation inside a shrinking one, and that is a different thing to own. Energy money buys new buildings at three sites, Malaysia, Kobe and Tsukuba, and moves switchgear production from Chiba to Kawasaki. The stated reason is demand for substation equipment, and the order book names data centers and overseas semiconductor plants among its drivers. One number for scale on the other side. Semiconductor depreciation and lease cost was 8.9bn in the quarter against 2.8bn of new spending. That segment is still paying for the last cycle while this one gets funded. The US and Korean names in this layer are well covered. Eaton ($ETN), GE Vernova ($GEV), HD Hyundai Electric (KRX: 267260), Hyosung Heavy Industries (KRX: 298040). This is the Japanese one I had never written about until today. What would change my read: the September quarter closes in six weeks. If energy capex lands near 1.4bn again instead of 8.8bn, the reallocation was a schedule and not a decision. Guidance is what a company says. A capex schedule is when it has to write the cheque. Sources, in order: Fuji Electric, Q1 FY2026 supplementary data file, pages P1, P3 and P9. Fuji Electric, Q1 results presentation, 30 July 2026. Fuji Electric, FY2026 management plan, 28 April 2026. My read, not advice. The September quarter figures are the half year plan minus the reported quarter.