Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Writes on sovereign debt, trade, fx reserves and capital flows.
加入 May 2016
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Have long enjoyed my dialogue with Kunal Shah, but disagree with him here -- the available data for q3 (July trade numbers, plus August import numbers) suggests a gigantic rewidening of the deficit in q3 and likely h2 ...
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Worth noting the Trump admin has succeeded in reducing the trade deficit vs GDP - US trade deficit for 2026 is tracking at 2.5% the lowest it’s been for a while-
Huge success to be able to reduce this to 2% by the end of the presidency?
Exports / particularly AI led will increase materially
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