Historically, the broad U.S. stock market has trended upward over long periods — and during almost every presidency.
Despite the generally positive trend, Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, notes that midterm years tend to be the most volatile in any given four-year presidential term, based on his analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1950 through 2025. The broad stock market has seen the largest dips, on average, during midterm years compared with any other in the presidential cycle, Detrick’s data shows.
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